An interesting event happened last Friday and I've been toying whether it constitutes a coincidence or an example of an extremely unlikely, hence notable and remarkable as incident. That afternoon I was writing my second blog entry "Bloody Coup at the Feather River Canyon CSD (Part 2)" and was discussing the image of The Viper as she glared at me in a manner that I associated with the nurse in "One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest". I went to my shelves, eventually found the DVD, and was reminded that her name was Nurse Ratched.
With that name, Google Images quickly gave me 15 to 20 images. I found exactly the one I was imagining and modified it for the blog. Unless there was some reference on TV or the net which was completely subliminal then I think I can say with some assurance that I had not thought of that film or that character in many years, perhaps decades. Three hours after I posted to the blog my neighbor got home from work and brought over her copy of the San Francisco Chronicle, which I appreciate getting seconds. Being Friday I eventually arrived the entertainment section. Inside, an interview withLouise Lasher about her role as Nurse Ratched and WITH THE VERY SAME PICTURE I HAD CHOSEN !!
Were I not of a skeptical frame of mind, I might easily imagine a number of paranormal explanations but even so, it was a Twilight Zone theme music moment. The word " CO-IN-CI-DENCE " is descriptive but not explanatory. Perhaps this character or actress had mysteriously risen to the surface of the zeitgeist like other current mysteries like Betty White or, even stranger Lady Ga Ga. I suppose that's old fogy thinking.
I want to distill the above incident and send it of to Steven Novella, moderator of my favorite podcast,"Skeptic's Guide to the Universe". He's also a neurologist and president of the New England Skeptical Society. I'll see if he'll discuss improbability and how that is or is not the same phenomena as coincidence.
I wrote before about acupuncture where I assumed the phenomena I have observed, of more than two weeks now, of my hardcore cigarette smoking neighbor ceasing smoking is an example of placebo effect:
Reason: Ask The Skeptic
Email: beanmaster@hughes.net
First Name: John
Last Name: Keith
Location: Feather River Canyon, northern California
Subject: Placebo Effect
Message: I have watched with interest my neighbor, 52, who has been a heavy cigarette smoker since he was 12, often 5 packs of unfiltered, and claims that the only time he has gone more than 24 hours without them was when he was in jail. Now, with emphysema and COPD he's getting desperate and asked my views of acupuncture. I said that I thought that since needles were apparently stuck anywhere over hundreds of maladies never thought of by the ancient Chinese, that I considered it bogus. However, I acknowledged that many who believe in the practice often report positive subjective results.
He went to a guy who affected the persona of a sixties hippie, complete with long white pony tail, tie dyed T shirt and scented candles. He said with the first treatment (for $60.00) my neighbor would stop desire his desire to smoke, that in fact the thought would be repugnant. The guy asserted that with the second and last treatment he'd stop smoking forever, though as an "herbalist" he had no problem with him continuing to smoke his Prop 215 legal pot. The acupuncturist even has a life time guarantee: if he should be one of the very, very few who relapse, further treatments are free. This guy has run his practice out of his home office in a small city of 70,000 for 30 years so he's no over night charlatan and really does honor his guarantee.
It's now been three and a half weeks. He has had two treatments. His wife, who now smokes outside, is going next. He claims zero desire, indeed, that the thought makes him sick. He has no reason to deceive me and I have no reason to doubt his subjective report.
I do not find it very meaningful to say that this is "merely" placebo effect, even if it is. You have probably discussed this subject many times but it's hard for me to see if this sort of magic can convince those prone not to be skeptical with beneficial effects, what's wrong with it. The nicotine patches did nothing for him and mainstream medicine, he told me suggested 12 step programs.
John Keith
(530) 283 0960
www.canyongraphics.net
Email: beanmaster@hughes.net
First Name: John
Last Name: Keith
Location: Feather River Canyon, northern California
Subject: Placebo Effect
Message: I have watched with interest my neighbor, 52, who has been a heavy cigarette smoker since he was 12, often 5 packs of unfiltered, and claims that the only time he has gone more than 24 hours without them was when he was in jail. Now, with emphysema and COPD he's getting desperate and asked my views of acupuncture. I said that I thought that since needles were apparently stuck anywhere over hundreds of maladies never thought of by the ancient Chinese, that I considered it bogus. However, I acknowledged that many who believe in the practice often report positive subjective results.
He went to a guy who affected the persona of a sixties hippie, complete with long white pony tail, tie dyed T shirt and scented candles. He said with the first treatment (for $60.00) my neighbor would stop desire his desire to smoke, that in fact the thought would be repugnant. The guy asserted that with the second and last treatment he'd stop smoking forever, though as an "herbalist" he had no problem with him continuing to smoke his Prop 215 legal pot. The acupuncturist even has a life time guarantee: if he should be one of the very, very few who relapse, further treatments are free. This guy has run his practice out of his home office in a small city of 70,000 for 30 years so he's no over night charlatan and really does honor his guarantee.
It's now been three and a half weeks. He has had two treatments. His wife, who now smokes outside, is going next. He claims zero desire, indeed, that the thought makes him sick. He has no reason to deceive me and I have no reason to doubt his subjective report.
I do not find it very meaningful to say that this is "merely" placebo effect, even if it is. You have probably discussed this subject many times but it's hard for me to see if this sort of magic can convince those prone not to be skeptical with beneficial effects, what's wrong with it. The nicotine patches did nothing for him and mainstream medicine, he told me suggested 12 step programs.
John Keith
(530) 283 0960
www.canyongraphics.net
Steve wrote back the same day:
John,
The problem is not that acupuncture "works" on smoking cessation through placebo effects. The problem is that acupuncture does not work for smoking cessation.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19735853
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16437420
The problem is not that acupuncture "works" on smoking cessation through placebo effects. The problem is that acupuncture does not work for smoking cessation.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19735853
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